Barbarians at the Gates
Artsakh should prepare a bold and shocking geopolitical martial-arts move for the sake of existential survival.
We hope that Artsakh has plans in place to defend against future Azeri aggression, and that those defense plans have been renewed and revised since the invasion of 2020 to prepare for a wide spectrum of next-generation warfare. Any such self-defense plans should remain the first and best option for the survival of the Republic of Artsakh and the human Armenian population therein. However, if it is believed at the highest levels that the security situation could deteriorate rapidly and substantially, it is advisable that Artsakh, acting on its own sovereign authority — with or without the approval of the Republic of Armenia — should consider inviting the Islamic Republic of Iran to enter Artsakh preemptively as a security protector.
The heroes of the 44-Day War may well have saved Artsakh and Armenia proper from being overrun in a wider assault, and we eternally salute their sacrifice. In their honor, Armenians must view the continuing crisis with sharp eyes and clever minds. It is plainly obvious to all observers that another conflict looms: anyone watching the region understands that Azerbaijan is probably about to attack Artsakh again in the coming weeks, and perhaps make further incursions into Armenia. This likely coming assault is not only understood by Armenians and neutral observers, but also publicly bragged about by Azerbaijan and their genocidal allies. As always, the Turks are telegraphing their moves because they believe sincerely that nothing can stop them, and demoralization of their victims is a key point of their strategy.
Our Turkish-Azeri enemies demonstrated again in 2020 an insane lust for exterminating the outnumbered Armenian people in our indigenous homelands, and once again employed barbaric crimes against humanity to that end. Besides their unspeakable war crimes, they have shown that they are perfectly glad to use a global pandemic and Western ambivalence as a covering smokescreen for their aggression. Now at this moment, the world is once again preoccupied with a more publicized war in Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan, as well as simultaneous international crises that include economic inflation, energy security, severe drought, and the ongoing pandemic. We must assume that our enemies have plots for further aggression that take advantage of these macro-challenges to shield them from international scrutiny.
We must also assume that Russian peacekeepers may be called away from Artsakh to Ukraine or some other conflict. Or perhaps Azeris will simply ignore the thinly-spread peacekeeping forces, possibly even with their tacit permission. In either case, the guarantee provided by Russian peacekeepers is hardly a forceful one, and it would be perilous to rely on it solely for salvation from genocide. Every week, the news of another Artsakhsi soldier wounded or killed demonstrates that the peacekeepers have limited enforcement capabilities or willingness to intervene. Those limitations are observed even in a time of “cease-fire,” as the Azeris are not good faith parties to any cease-fire.
Every Armenian knows chess. We have played this match out before. We can see more than three moves ahead. We know that Azerbaijan will probably attack again. We know in that case they will again be overtly supported by Turkey. We know the Turks anticipate sealing off Artsakh in a cauldron by seizing the Berdzor corridor. We know they plan to attack Stepanakert and Martakert and will attempt to ethnically cleanse those regions. We know that if and when these attacks happen, the Turks will influence the Western establishment media to repeat the same misinformation about “both sides” being at fault, along with the same Turkish version of international law (which in their interpretation always seems to excuse Turks killing more people). We know that they will play the old Turkish game of backstabbing and double-dealing, to play off Europe against Russia, West against East, so that all the major powers think the Turks are really on their side, and none of them comes to the rescue of Armenia. We know all this, weeks in advance.
We, Armenians are all chess players. In chess, when you know exactly what your enemy is going to do, you do something to thwart him. You certainly don’t do nothing. And you also don’t repeat a strategy that did not work in the last game. You adapt, and you leave yourself license to make shocking moves that seem unthinkable until the moment they are played on the board.
It could be time to execute a shocking chess move, a “swinging gate” of momentum in our favor. Iran has shown tolerance to ethnic Armenians under their rule, time and time again for centuries. While Iran could be seen by some as an unpopular ally on the world stage, easily demonized in the Western press, they have an existing adversarial relationship with the Turks in other conflict theaters, and are neither beholden to the interests of the West nor Russia. Although there are economic ties, Iran is no close friend of Azerbaijan and has already expressed a willingness to intervene if the Turks move to wrest the Syunik region from Armenia proper. And most importantly, this second looming Azeri-Turkish attack on Artsakh poses a question of existential survival for the Armenians in our entirety, so therefore any help from any imperfect ally is preferable to the ethnic cleansing offered by the Turks and ‘blessed’ by all the other world powers.
The prime goal should be a free and independent Republic of Artsakh. If that is not possible, then surely an Iranian protectorate over Artsakh is far preferable to an Azeri-controlled Artsakh without any Armenians left living there, our ancient monuments erased, and the exterminationist threats extended even closer to the Republic of Armenia.
Survival is at stake. If Artsakh cannot have and defend its own statehood, the next best thing is to at least ensure the survival of Artsakhsi people in their homeland.
It is worth considering too that the current leadership of the Republic of Armenia has demonstrated one of its chief goals as “normalization” of relations with Turkey. While the long-term pros and cons for Armenian-Turkish “normalization” can be debated elsewhere, in the short term, it has immediate practical concerns for Artsakh’s specific fate. In the absence of a united effort between Armenia and Artsakh, where their immediate interests or strategies vis-a-vis the Turks may diverge, Artsakhsis can and should act unilaterally to ensure their own survival, under the power of their own sovereign authority.
While the “poison pill” of inviting in Iran as preemptive protectors would suddenly render the Artsakh region a costly and unappetizing target to the Turks, it also very likely could end the aspirations of Artsakhsis for recognized statehood in the foreseeable future. But in light of last week’s heartbreaking images of the Berdzor evacuations, are Artsakhsis not justified in whatever means necessary to stay in what is left of their indigenous homeland?
If this idea meets with approval from Artsakhsi leaders, the proposal should be made right now, from the government of Artsakh to the government of Iran. If a Turkish attack on Artsakh is planned to start in the next two to six weeks, it is far better to bring the Iranians in ahead of time as a defensive hegemon, rather than ask them to come to the rescue by fighting their way in chaotically after Azerbaijan’s bloodthirsty invasion has already commenced.
A proactive effort has other benefits, too. Artsakhsi envoys can negotiate for dual citizenship with Iran and Armenia, religious freedom, regional autonomy if at all possible, and a program for the repatriation of Artsakhsis who have been forced to emigrate. A free-trade zone with Armenia and Iran could have numerous benefits for investment, too. And Iran will be seen by all honest observers as a benevolent force in this case that narrowly averted the ethnic cleansing of an entire region.
Should the invitation go out and Iran declines to intervene or waits to see specific events unfold, the foreign ministry of the Republic of Artsakh should quickly send the exact same overture to India, France, Greece, Egypt, China, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, in that order. While not sharing an existing border with Armenia as Iran does, an airborne defense force or electronic weapons systems from any of those nations, or a coalition of them, could be sent in time to prevent another outbreak of Turkish bloodletting in Artsakh.
Artsakh’s future is still in the hands of the Artsakhsis, and it will remain so as long as it takes creative and unpredictable steps to preserve its own survival.
(This article first appeared on USA Armenian Life http://www.armenianlife.com/2022/08/18/barbarians-at-the-gates/)
