Re-drawing the Lines: It’s Time for an International Coalition to Subdue Turkey and Azerbaijan
The governments of Turkey and Azerbaijan are run by dictators who use brute force and human rights violations to wage war on Armenia, to antagonize Greece, and to continue to deny self-determination to Kurds and other minorities in the region. They bully their neighbors, silence and assassinate critics, and arrogantly celebrate war crimes on social media. At this moment, Turkey is training ISIS mercenaries and deploying them in Libya, in Syria, in Armenia and Artsakh (the former Soviet Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh), with the explicit goal of a reconstituted empire reminiscent of the bloody and tarnished Ottoman Empire. In response, local city governments around the globe have bravely done what international governments have so far fallen short of doing: to recognize the beleaguered Artsakh as an independent republic and to demand sanctions against Turkey and Azerbaijan.
International pressure should continue to guide Ankara and Baku to a diplomatic resolution of their conflicts across the region. But all signs point to Turkish and Azerbaijani escalations of conflict at all points and refusal of peace overtures. There are further ominous indications of plans for a combined Turkish-Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia, as well as Turkish expansion by force into the Aegean Sea, on top of their ongoing interventions in Syria and Libya. Turkey has also courted war with France and Egypt, publicly insulted its former allies Israel and Saudi Arabia, and threatened Germany and Europe with a long list of illegal and belligerent actions. In sum: the Turkish nations are at war or threatening war against most of their neighbors, while making violent threats against powers far beyond their borders. Like a madman rampaging in a public square, they are lashing out indiscriminately at parties who have serious differences and rivalries among them, and little in common aside from the madman run amok.
In the increasingly likely event that peaceful diplomatic pressure fails to contain them, a more forceful insurance plan must be in place. That plan should involve an international coalition to dismantle the governments of both Turkey and Azerbaijan, and if need be, to adjust their internationally recognized borders accordingly. Such courses of action will likely require either regime change or war, and should be aimed to accomplish such actions with overwhelming force and sudden speed, to avoid prolonged hostilities and unnecessary human casualties.
Sadly, the dictatorships of Turkey and Azerbaijan use ethnic chauvinism and jingoistic rhetoric to stifle dissent and independent journalism within their borders, and to inflame violent intimidation of their critics and targeted minority populations abroad. The international response on both governments has been so shamefully lacking as to embolden violent Turkish aggression worldwide, from Lyon to Stepanakert, San Francisco to Moscow.
Officially, the United States and most of Europe stand at a distance. They have abdicated their global leadership roles in favor of propping up these petty strongmen because of short-sighted oil politics, along with an outdated, vestigial Cold War motive of being generally anti-Russian. Reminiscent of the policy of appeasement in the 1930s, today’s Western powers mumble vaguely about peace while Turkey and Azerbaijan violate cease fires, attack civilians, and try to provoke additional conflicts. Demonstrators in Baku advocate in favor of more war. Lasting regime change there is therefore unlikely. So is de-escalation due to any well-meaning diplomatic pressure. If diplomacy should fail, then another solution is called for. The next best course of action would be an international coalition to dismantle the militaries and governments of both rogue Turkish states.
In the past hundred years, the only precedent for an unsatisfactory peace in the region has been Russian hegemony. This old calculus must be revised. It is incumbent upon Armenia to seek out and to broker an international alternative. Armenia ought to court several regional powers, including Russia and Iran, but also Greece and France. Oppressed Kurdish minorities in Turkey should be approached in common cause. The alternatives, either Turkish or Russian dominance in the Caucasus, are unacceptable to Armenia and to NATO, respectively. This must be an international coalition, and at this stage of history such a coalition must cut across previous lines of alliance.
Together, these multi-pronged liberation forces of Anatolia and the Caucasus should use all means necessary to strike simultaneously and subdue Turkey and Azerbaijan: multiple air and missile strikes on Turkish/Azerbaijani airfields and air assets; a ground and/or naval invasion to take control of Baku’s oil resources while their military assets are away trying to commit genocide in Karabakh; liberation and security in Northern Cyprus and the Eastern Aegean; rollback of Turkish and ISIS gains in Libya.
Those who currently live under existential threat from Turkey and Azerbaijan have the most to gain: Armenia and Kurdistan have the right to exist in self-determination and to prosper in the region. But also the nations outside the immediate reach of Pan-Turkish violence and ethnic cleansing will also see immediate and long-term advantages. Russia and Iran stand to benefit from Caspian Sea energy resources and other development opportunities as they increase their regional influence. Greece would greatly improve its security and face a future of peace in the Aegean Sea. France would win honor and prestige as the first and bravest among Western powers in defeating a great bully, commencing a historic moment of global opportunities. Even the United Kingdom and the United States, far from leaders against Pan-Turkish revanchism, have an opportunity to rectify their oversight and develop partnerships with the subsequently humbled successor states; if nothing else, they can and should freeze the assets of Turkey and Azerbaijan, impose sanctions, and stop arming the bad guys. Even a power as geographically far removed as China will see advantage in the long view: how greatly preferable to work with grateful, respectful and cosmopolitan regional partners on the intercontinental projects of the Belt and Road Initiative, rather than be stuck in business with a violent, treacherous ally like Turkey, sitting and snarling in the crossroads of three major continents for the next 500 years.
Of course, the roadmap for new international cooperation will require sacrifice from many. Lives will be lost. Fortunes will be spent. The balance of powers will be upset and reconstituted. The only question is whether those lives and fortunes and powers are passively surrendered to the chauvinistic ethno-nationalist ambitions of Turkish fascism without opposition, or whether they are sacrificed with wise calculation to save countless more lives, and to settle a Long Peace avoiding the horrors of the past century, insofar as the imperfect goodwill of the world community is best able to accomplish.
The post-war order could see Western Armenia liberated, Greek Anatolia freed, and an internationally recognized Kurdistan, while the Bosporus and the Dardanelles could be administered as demilitarized zones overseen by the United Nations. Regardless of where the subsequent lines are drawn, it will be important for all participants to ensure the safety of all civilians, including ethnic Turks and Azeris. Each government needs to plan for a future that involves the active and healthy political participation of those within its borders. This is the great moral potential that must be aspired to in the coming centuries.
Every diplomatic measure to resolve the conflict should be explored and exhausted. But time is short. The lessons of 1915 and of 1938 should not be forgotten. Appeasement of dictators is a mistake, and idly standing by while genocide unfolds is a capital sin, an eternal strike against the honor of those governments that would be so self-disgraced. There is a very real possibility of a broader regional war. Rather than bleat and moan for it to go away and simply not be so, international leaders need to be prepared to cooperate in detail to fight and win a short, decisive and just war, and to impose a Long Peace on the region finally rid of the obstacles of Turkish fascism and Pan-Turkish revanchism.
